A significant slowing of growth in this region has been caused mainly by the macroeconomic situation in Brazil. Q2 2015 saw +1 percent year-on-year unit growth, compared to +28 percent in Q1 2015 and +72 percent rise in Q2 2014. In 2015, GfK forecasts total smartphone unit demand and sales value to drop in Brazil for the first time ever, with unit sales expected to fall -3 percent year-on-year, and sales value to decline -15 percent year-on-year.
Emerging APAC - fierce competition in a growing Indian market
In Emerging APAC, smartphone unit demand increased by +22 percent year-on-year in Q2 2015, with all major countries growing. India in particular has seen strong unit growth of +40 percent year-on-year, with local brands accounting for three of the top five smartphone vendor spots in the quarter. A number of Chinese smartphone brands have entered the Indian market this year, intensifying the already fierce competition between international and local vendors. The resulting price war is forcing ASPs down in a market where more than 80 percent of sales are in the low-end. In Q2 2015, smartphone ASP in India declined -12 percent year-on-year. In 2015, GfK forecasts smartphone prices in India to fall -11 percent year-on-year and 4G unit demand to more-than-triple, capturing 6 percent of the smartphone unit demand.
Developed APAC - unit sales up +6 percent as Japan improves
Unit sales in Developed APAC grew +6 percent year-on-year in Q2 2015, driven by Japan (+15 percent), which benefitted from an easy comparison with low sales in Q2 2014. GfK forecasts smartphone unit demand in the region to grow by +1 percent year-on-year in 2015. A -6 percent smartphone demand decline in S. Korea will be offset by Japan, which is forecast to see a +3 percent year-on-year increase.
Walsh concludes: "Weak macroeconomic trends will continue across a number of major countries such as Brazil, Russia and China, but recoveries when they come are often faster than expected especially for tech sectors. In addition, we are still a long way from saturation in emerging market while adjacent industries to the smartphone fuel the next round of growth, generally complementing and in some cases cannibalizing smartphone growth."
Note to editors
GfK forecasts End Demand consumer purchases rather than manufacturer shipments. Market sizes are built up by point-of-sale (POS) tracking in 90+ markets with updates on a weekly and monthly basis. For the US, GfK employs proprietary market modeling and consumer research rather than POS to produce its market forecasts. Values are based on unsubsidized retail pricing. Data is available quarterly. The next data set will be available in late October 2015.
GfK continually works to ensure its panel data is as accurate a reflection of the end market as possible. When a change is made to the number of participants in our panel, GfK will amend historical data to better reflect the impacted end market. For example, when a new retailer joins, the addition of their historic sales may lead to slight adjustments to actual data.
List of countries in the regions used in this release:
Developed APAC Emerging APAC
Australia India
Hong Kong Indonesia
Japan Kampuchea (Cambodia)
New Zealand Malaysia
Singapore Philippines
South Korea Thailand
Taiwan Vietnam
Press contact
Wes Rogers
+44-203-287-3262 / +1-912-506-0869
wes@greenfieldscommunications.com
