Emerging Asia Pacific (APAC) was the powerhouse of smartphone growth throughout last year, but the region experienced a considerable drop in year-on-year growth, from 24 percent in 4Q 2015 to five percent in 1Q 2016.
This slow-down was caused by India, where demand was dampened by operators increasing data rates. GfK expects the impact to be temporary, because new operators set to enter the market later this year could ignite a local price war. The "Make in India" initiative is also likely to help keep prices down.
Price competition intensified further in 1Q 2016 in the key markets of India and Indonesia as local and Chinese vendors continued to offer cheaper smartphones. Despite this, smartphone penetration in the sub-US$100 price band remained at only 30 percent, leaving plenty of room for smartphone demand growth.
Smartphones: 2015 sales vs. 2016 forecast
Units sold (in mil.) Sales value (in bn. US$)
2015 2016 Y/Y percent 2015 2016 Y/Y percent
sales forecast change sales forecast change
Western Europe 137.3 133.6 -3% 53.6 51.1 -5%
Central & Eastern Europe 73.4 77.1 +5% 14.8 14.7 -1%
North America 190.8 197.4 +3% 78.0 76.9 -1%
Latin America 110.3 97.2 -12% 27.1 23.4 -14%
Middle East & Africa 162.6 182.7 +12% 42.1 42.4 +1%
China 385.3 411.5 +7% 115.8 120.4 +4%
Developed APAC 73.5 67.3 -8% 43.1 38.4 -11%
Emerging APAC 201.1 229.5 +14% 32.9 33.4 +2%
Global 1,334.2 1,396.3 +5% 407.4 400.7 -2%
Source: GfK Point of Sales (POS) Measurement data in 90+ markets for calendar year
2015 and GfK forecasts for calendar year 2016, as at May 2016.
Arndt Polifke, global director of telecom products at GfK concludes, "The connected consumer is evolving from connectivity to complete and seamless integration with technology. For smartphones, there is still growth to come from connectivity, especially in the emerging markets. Already though, we are seeing how the next wave of growth from wearables, virtual reality and smart home can be complementary to smartphone growth in 2016 and beyond."
Contact: Wes Rogers - T. +44-203-287-3262 / T. +1-912-506-0869 / wes@greenfieldscommunications.com
